53-3032.00

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Drive a tractor-trailer combination or a truck with a capacity of at least 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW). May be required to unload truck.

7.2OUT OF 10SAFEHIGH RISK
High Risk

This role faces substantial AI disruption

More at risk than 82% of occupations we track

Frey & Osborne (2013) estimated 79% probability of automation for this role
paper →
82%
of jobs safer
25
jobs riskier than this
+4.0%
projected growth

Disruption Vector

Disruption Type

Physical Robots

Physical robotics, autonomous machines, and automated equipment are the main threat to the physical tasks in this occupation.

Autonomous long-haul trucking is advancing: Aurora Innovation launched commercial driverless operations on Texas highways in 2024, Waymo Via continues expansion. Highway driving on fixed routes is more automatable than complex urban delivery. Full legal and regulatory clearance for nationwide deployment will take 5-10 more years, but early displacement is already happening on specific corridors.

Disrupted byBoston DynamicsAmazon RoboticsTesla Optimus

Salary & Job Outlook

Median Annual Pay
$54,320
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
10-Year Job Growth
+4.0%
As fast as average
Education Required
Postsecondary nondegree award
Job Zone 2 / 5

AI Risk Timeline

7.2
8.0
8.7
10.0
Today
5 Years
10 Years
20 Years

Projection model: Based on current AI capability growth rates. High-risk occupations are projected to see compounding automation pressure, while human-centric roles show slower risk accumulation. These are statistical projections, not guarantees.

Skills Analysis — AI Vulnerability

AI can replicate (0)
AI-resistant (1)
Mixed
Active Listening65%
Speaking60%
Coordination62%
Monitoring58%
Time Management55%

Career Pivot Paths

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Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

7.2
/ 10
High Risk
72% automation risk

"You're not cooked yet, but someone's preheating the oven."

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HEAVY AND TRACTOR-TRAILER TRUCK DRIVERS
7.2

/ 10

HIGH RISK

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You're more at risk than a Speech-Language Pathologists (score: 2.5). Maybe it's time to rethink.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is based on statistical models and academic research. It does not constitute career advice and is not a guarantee of future employment outcomes. AI impact varies significantly by employer, region, and individual circumstances. Learn about our methodology →