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53-3051.00

Bus Drivers, School

Drive a school bus to transport students. Ensure adherence to safety rules. May assist students in boarding or exiting.

7.0OUT OF 10SAFEHIGH RISK
High Risk

This role faces substantial AI disruption

More at risk than 68% of occupations we track

Frey & Osborne (2013) estimated 50% probability of automation for this role
paper →
68%
of jobs safer
332
jobs riskier than this
+0.2%
projected growth

Disruption Vector

Disruption Type

Physical Robots

Physical robotics, autonomous machines, and automated equipment are the main threat to the physical tasks in this occupation.

Autonomous school bus technology is in early development from companies like Tortoise and Pronto AI, but no jurisdiction has approved fully autonomous school bus operation for children through 2027 due to safety, liability, and regulatory barriers. Student safety monitoring, managing student behavior, and navigating school zone complexity require a responsible adult driver on board. This role faces minimal near-term AI displacement; regulatory and parental safety expectations ensure human bus drivers for school routes through at least 2027.

Disrupted byBoston DynamicsAmazon RoboticsTesla Optimus

Salary & Job Outlook

Median Annual Pay
$47,040
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
10-Year Job Growth
+0.2%
Little or no change
Education Required
High school diploma or equivalent
Job Zone 2 / 5

AI Risk Timeline

7.0
7.8
8.5
10.0
Today
5 Years
10 Years
20 Years

Projection model: Based on current AI capability growth rates. High-risk occupations are projected to see compounding automation pressure, while human-centric roles show slower risk accumulation. These are statistical projections, not guarantees.

Skills Analysis — AI Vulnerability

AI can replicate (0)
AI-resistant (1)
Mixed
Active Listening65%
Speaking60%
Coordination62%
Monitoring58%
Time Management55%

Career Pivot Paths

If you're a Bus Drivers, School, consider pivoting toward these lower-risk roles:

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Bus Drivers, School

7.0
/ 10
High Risk
70% automation risk

"You're not cooked yet, but someone's preheating the oven."

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BUS DRIVERS, SCHOOL
7.0

/ 10

HIGH RISK

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You're more at risk than a Aerospace Engineers (score: 1.6). Maybe it's time to rethink.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is based on statistical models and academic research. It does not constitute career advice and is not a guarantee of future employment outcomes. AI impact varies significantly by employer, region, and individual circumstances. Learn about our methodology →